GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2012 PDF

However looking further ahead there is little comfort for the bulls as GFMS is predicting further weakness in As we have noted in the past on Mineweb a fall in the metal price often, at least initially, has the opposite effect to that which the market might anticipate. Of course new mines which are already down the development pipeline will also be brought on stream, adding to overall production. This can only go on for so long though and ultimately low prices do filter down to force production cuts as continually uneconomic operations are closed down, older mines find it impossible to high grade and new projects at the inception stage are deferred. But this can all take 2 or 3 years to filter through by which time, the miners hope, prices will have improved again. But then, conversely, production will fall as the mines can revert to working lower grade ores, while the deferred projects will still take several years to be brought to production at best.

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However looking further ahead there is little comfort for the bulls as GFMS is predicting further weakness in As we have noted in the past on Mineweb a fall in the metal price often, at least initially, has the opposite effect to that which the market might anticipate.

Of course new mines which are already down the development pipeline will also be brought on stream, adding to overall production. This can only go on for so long though and ultimately low prices do filter down to force production cuts as continually uneconomic operations are closed down, older mines find it impossible to high grade and new projects at the inception stage are deferred. But this can all take 2 or 3 years to filter through by which time, the miners hope, prices will have improved again.

But then, conversely, production will fall as the mines can revert to working lower grade ores, while the deferred projects will still take several years to be brought to production at best.

Hence some of the cyclicality seen in the mining sector. Thus new mined gold output may not fall back even in the current year should gold prices stay at or around current levels which put many even large gold mining operations into the marginal category on an all in sustaining costs basis. But the GFMS report does contain some contradictions which could result in positivity for the gold price.

With scrap sales falling back drastically at the lower prices, and not expected to pick up much if at all, this would seem to counter to an extent the higher mine production. Another factor which may at least give the gold bulls some heart is the estimate that in demand for gold for jewellery fabrication and general bar and coin investment demand will likely exceed the total of new mine production plus scrap.

However other elements in the equation could end up bringing fundamentals into balance. But if sales out of gold ETFs fall away this year, or even turn around to purchases as they have done to date then matters could yet prove to be different. And we would add continuing unrest in Ukraine and any moves to impose punitive sanctions on Russia, which would lead to likely retaliation, could also impact prices positively.

The big question though is what is likely to happen to Chinese demand after it reached record levels in There are signs that this may be slowing down after a new record for imports in the first two months of the year. The report sees investor appetite as not being strong and that, without this important element returning, the gold price is expected to resume a further downward course in Lawrence Williams.

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GFMS: Gold Investment "To Set New Record in 2012"

For those weighing up the pros and cons of making a Gold Investment this year there were both bullish and bearish signals, writes Ben Traynor at BullionVault. Here are some highlights: Bullish Signals 1. Furthermore, the consultancy expects investment demand for gold to set a fresh all-time high of close to tonnes in Gold Bullion terms. Europe, China, Thailand and the Indian subcontinent all saw growth in physical gold bar investment investors in North America, as Klapwijk pointed out, tend to prefer Gold Coins to Gold Bars. A lot will depend on whether, as GFMS expects, the economic environment will continue to be supportive of Gold Investment, with negative real interest rates and fears of inflation prevailing in most parts of the world.

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